"This feels like 1996": Why a16z's Martin Casado believes the AI boom still has years to run (General Partner)
Martin Casado has lived through multiple tech waves—first as a founder, now as a16z’s leading voice on AI and infrastructure. He helped pioneer software-defined networking, then moved from academia to entrepreneurship, and today backs founders building at the frontier of technology as a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz. In this conversation, Martin shares his unique perspective on the AI boom, his market-first investment philosophy, and why he believes we’re still in the early days of AI’s impact.We explore:• Martin’s path from game engines and simulations to investing at Andreessen Horowitz• Why Martin believes we’re only in “1996” of the AI boom cycle with years to run before any bubble• Why Martin approaches investing “from markets in” rather than “from companies out”• Why the AI coding market represents a potential $3 trillion opportunity• The transformation of Andreessen Horowitz from a small generalist partnership to a specialized 600-person organization• The concerning dominance of Chinese companies in open source AI models• Why Martin thinks AGI discussions encourage “lazy thinking” and obscure meaningful conversations• How World Labs is solving the 3D representation problem that could unlock robotics, VR, and more—Thank you to the partners who make this possibleAuth0: Secure access for everyone.
- Uploaded
- Uploaded May 26, 2026
- Queried
- Queried 0 times
Speaker A: If you ask me, what is the one area that AI has surprised you? It's in coding. I've been developing my whole life and I would never have guessed it'd be this good. Speaker B: You have mentioned that some of the energy that you're seeing in AI really reminds you of the '90s dot-com boom. Speaker A: This feels a lot like early '96, but I don't think we're anywhere close to a late '90s level bubble. Now, I think that could come. The current technology wave is you can actually deploy capital and you can get revenue on the other side of it.
And I think that is what the market is trying to normalize. But there's a true value being created in this AI. And I think that if money's not following it, it's going to miss the greatest supercycle in the last 20 years. Speaker B: How would you describe your investing style today? What is your filter? Speaker A: I used to think from company out. I've stopped that. Now I think only from markets in. The reality is the market creates the company in most cases, not the other way round. And so I always start with what is the market?
And then I ask the question, is this the right founder for this market? It's clearly not perfect. And in fact, you'll be wrong a lot of the time. But I would submit that if you invest in this way, you will be right in a way that's better than market norm. Speaker B: Hey, I'm Mario, and this is The Generalist Podcast. As the saying goes, the future is already here. It's just not evenly distributed. Each week I sit down with the founders, investors, and visionaries living in the future to help you see what's coming, understand it more clearly, and capitalize on it.
Want to learn more?
Ask a question